US Politics
Betting on politics is the new game: More than $200M on wagers increases fears of insider trading
Your support helps us to tell the story
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it’s investigating the financials of Elon Musk’s pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, ‘The A Word’, which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.
At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference.
Read more
Millions of dollars are now being bet on global political events, with online prediction markets such as Polymarket seeing a boom in activity in recent months.
Around 370,000 people are making bets worth more than $90 million on politics at Polymarket, according to an analysis of data from Dune Analytics, conducted by The Washington Post.
Its rival prediction market site, Kalshi, says it has around $129 million at stake on various political happenings, though it does not allow bets on events involving direct military action.
Many of the bets, which have been criticized as unethical, revolve around the actions of the U.S. and Donald Trump – especially the White House’s foreign interventions. Domestic matters, including the content of his State of the Union address and the next Federal Reserve Chairman, can also be wagered on.
DHS Secretary Kristi Noem’s odds of being the first Trump cabinet member to get fired surged among political bettors following her attempts to defend the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti in Minnesota earlier this week.
open image in gallery
Before this, Polymarket added multiple betting contracts that allow users to gamble on potential geopolitical events, including a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Russian territory gains in Ukraine and U.S. military action in countries including Colombia and Cuba.
However, the increasing amount of money being wagered has increased concerns over the potential for insider trading on significant global events.
It comes after one trader won more than $400,000 with a wager that Nicolas Maduro would be ousted as the leader of Venezuela, The Wall Street Journal reported, having noted that Polymarket had appeared to anticipate the president’s imminent capture by the U.S. military.
open image in gallery
Gamblers complained that White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt abruptly ended a press conference early, right before the 65-minute mark, which traders on Kalshi had bet thousands of dollars on. The White House did not respond to The Journal’s request for comment.
Following the fortunes made on Maduro, New York Congressman Ritchie Torres introduced a bill banning government employees or officials from betting on events they could have any influence over – similar to insider trading laws in the financial sector.
“If you’re both a government insider and a participant in the prediction market, you now have a perverse incentive to push for policies that will line your pockets,” Torres told The Wall Street Journal.
open image in gallery
“That kind of self-dealing is the very definition of corruption. It should be categorically prohibited within the ranks of the federal government.”
Other experts have suggested that allowing traders to bet on global political events could violate the 1936 Commodity Exchange Act that prevents wagers being placed on events related to terrorism, assassination, war or anything against the law.
Trading on Polymarket is banned in over 30 countries, including the U.S., the UK, Australia, France, Italy and Ukraine.
