China’s exports to the U.S. jumped ahead of summit, survey shows

American businesses ramped up orders for Chinese goods in the weeks leading up to the high-stakes summit this week, as companies positioned for continued stability between the world’s two largest economies.

The jump in orders was a “surprise,” with shipments to the U.S. rising on both a yearly and monthly basis “as China’s relative tariff position improved,” according to China Beige Book, a New York-based research firm that surveyed 1,295 Chinese companies between Sept. 1-22.

The gauge measuring orders from the U.S. — calculated as the proportion of surveyed firms reporting an increase minus the share reporting a decrease — jumped to 13 in September, from negative-12 a year earlier and 3 in August, according to the report.

Even so, overall Chinese domestic and export orders remained below their levels a year earlier, and new orders weakened from August, the report showed.

The upswing in U.S.-bound orders came as businesses positioned for a friendlier outcome at the summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who is in Washington this week for his first state visit in more than a decade.

The two countries agreed to extend by two months to January a trade truce that keeps tariffs lower, suspends restrictive controls on rare earth exports and holds off higher port fees on ships.

The U.S. also reportedly planned to delay a threatened round of tariffs tied to industrial overcapacity until at least after this week’s summit, easing near-term pressure on Chinese exporters.

The effective U.S. tariff rate on Chinese goods of around 23% remains well above the average levy the U.S. imposes on other major trading partners, according to Barclays.

The export order figures align with recent official data that showed China’s ports saw their busiest week on record in the run-up to the summit, another sign that trade flows were recovering amid hopes for a further thaw in bilateral relations.

Following the truce extension, Eurasia Group raised its odds of continued stability in the bilateral relationship to the highest level since Trump returned to office. The shorter-than-expected extension of the truce is also unlikely to reignite tensions, the consultancy firm said.

“Neither government has an interest in renewed escalation,” said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, who expects both sides to press each other for near-term commitments to maintain the fragile stability.

Washington is likely to seek further progress on expedited Chinese approval of rare-earth export licenses for U.S. end users, as well as increased purchases of U.S. agricultural goods, Wang said, and in return, Beijing would expect the White House to maintain its current pause on arms sales to Taiwan.

The two leaders are expected to meet again at the APEC summit in Shenzhen in November, and potentially on the sidelines of the G20 summit the U.S. is hosting in Miami in December. No bilateral meeting after this week’s summit has been confirmed.