The real risk to Trump from his big beautiful bill will not come from Elon Musk

With the bang of a wooden gavel, the House of Representatives gave Donald Trump the stunning victory he wanted after intimidating the hell out of any Republican congressmen or women who flirted with the idea of defying the president’s wishes. You can only imagine that 3,000 miles east of Washington a man in Downing Street looked on with helpless envy, because this week has really been a tale of two cities.

In London, Keir Starmer has had to suffer the ignominy of his backbenchers shredding his authority by sticking two fingers up at him repeatedly as though he were some hapless supply teacher brought into an inner London comprehensive for the day. The MPs forced concession after concession over a welfare bill that has been so gutted that an extra £5bn will need to be found to stop the ballooning of our deficit.

While in Washington DC, the president’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill” – the OBBB – will add a staggering, eye-popping, head-spinning, jaw-dropping, nausea-inducing three trillion dollars to the US deficit and yet lawmakers decided – without too many qualms – that keeping on Trump’s right side was more important than any considerations about the massive economic risks this legislation represents.

There was, it should be noted, a strong countervailing force in all this, and that was Elon Musk. The OBBB is what led to his and Trump’s nuclear-tipped spat, with the tech tycoon railing against its economic incontinence. Not only that, Musk threatened any Republican lawmaker who voted for it. And has threatened to set up a new political party to – in effect – destroy the Republicans.

With the passage of the bill we have at least one question resolved. In the battle of “who do you fear the most” – the richest man in the world, or the most powerful man in the world – Trump has come out on top. The wee, timorous beasties of the GOP caucus would rather incur the ire of Musk than the wrath of Trump. It remains to be seen whether the Tesla boss will make good on his promise to run candidates against those who backed the president’s bill – assuming he gets the chance, after Trump said this week he’d be looking at deporting Musk.

So what is this piece of legislation that will now get signed with much fanfare? Well, for a start it is what in the US they call a compendium bill, or omnibus bill. It is not a law just dealing with one thing. It is sprawling. This is a mega piece of legislation. It will bring tax cuts to America’s wealthiest; it contains provisions to funnel money towards border security and the Pentagon. And it will take away health provision and free school meals from America’s poorest. Think of it as the Robin Hood principle in reverse – it steals from the poor and gives to the rich.

Let’s go through some of the measures. It will strip healthcare away from 17 million Americans through cuts to Medicaid, the federal government programme that gives coverage to the poorest in America. It will raise healthcare premiums for older adults who benefit from “Obamacare”. It will take food assistance away from three million Americans and will eliminate school meal access to more than 18 million youngsters. All this to fund tax cuts where the beneficiaries will be the very wealthiest in US society.

There are Maga voices who’ve broken ranks. The uber-Trump supporting senator from Missouri, Josh Hawley, has spoken out passionately against the cuts to Medicaid, and how it will hit people in his state hard. So what did he do when it came to actually voting on the measure? Can you guess? Do you need another clue?

Or what about the “moderate” Republican from Alaska, Lisa Murkowski? She couldn’t have been more eloquent. This was a bill, she pronounced, that would not serve Americans’ best interests, that it was deeply flawed and was being rushed through to meet a totally arbitrary deadline set by the president of the Fourth of July. It was not fit to be passed in its present form. And, yes, you’ve guessed it – she voted for it too, just like Senator Hawley.

In her bizarre self-justifying statement after voting for the measure, Senator Murkowski said: “My sincere hope is that this is not the final product. This bill needs more work across chambers and is not ready for the president’s desk. We need to work together to get this right.” But, of course, by voting for it, she has ensured that the bill has gone straight to the Resolute Desk in the Oval Office for signature.

Though kudos to North Carolina senator Thom Tillis, who not only lambasted the bill but has announced he won’t run again for office, such is his disgust. And a couple of other Republican senators also split from the president.

Nevertheless, this is a massive legislative win for Trump, and a lovely win for all the billionaires who backed him and donated to his campaign and who will now enjoy even lower tax bills.

But isn’t that to confuse two things? The financial firepower of wealthy donors may have helped Trump get elected. But it was the votes of millions of ordinary Americans – blue-collar workers in record numbers – who elected him and put him in the White House. How are they going to feel about this? An effective Democratic Party (a phrase that feels slightly oxymoronic) would be –should be – making hay.

There is one other thing, though, about timing. The tax cuts will come into effect immediately and, yes, while the wealthiest will gain most, a lot of middle-class Americans will gain too. But the politically perilous cuts to Medicaid and the like are being deferred until the beginning of 2027. In other words, just after the November midterms, where Trump’s control of both Houses would be at stake. This White House is not stupid.