Latest forecast and what to know

Hurricane Melissa strengthened into a Category 4 storm as it churned northwest through the Caribbean Sea on Sunday, taking a direct aim at Jamaica, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

A hurricane warning, meaning that hurricane conditions are expected, was in effect for Jamaica on Sunday, the NHC said, as well as some regions of Cuba. The hurricane also prompted a hurricane watch, meaning that hurricane conditions are possible, for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti.

Hurricane Melissa live updates: Powerful storm poses ‘catastrophic’ threat to Caribbean

As of Sunday evening, Melissa was located about 115 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, moving toward the west at 5 mph and remained a major Category 4 storm, producing maximum sustained wind speeds of 145 mph.

If Melissa maintains its current strength, it could become the strongest hurricane to make landfall over the island since the NHC started keeping records. The strongest hurricane on record to make landfall over Jamaica was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, a Category 4 hurricane, with sustained winds of 130 mph.

Melissa is expected to continue to track west on Sunday night and into Monday before turning north and heading toward the southern coast of Jamaica later Monday into Tuesday.

Fueled by the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and less wind shear, Melissa is forecast to strengthen, or at the very least maintain its major hurricane status as it makes landfall over Jamaica by Tuesday morning.

Melissa was forecast to strengthen to a major Category 5 hurricane by Monday, packing maximum sustained wind speeds of 160 mph. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible before the storm makes landfall. At the very least, it is expected to remain a strong Category 4 storm as it moves over Jamaica on Tuesday.

All airports in Jamaica were closed as of late Sunday afternoon in anticipation of the storm, according to Jamaican government officials.

With torrential rainfall over the next few days, Hispaniola and Jamaica could receive 15 to 30 inches of rain. Some parts of the southern peninsula of Haiti and Jamaica potentially could receive up to 40 inches of rain, likely resulting in catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding, as well as numerous landslides.

Dangerous storm surge, surf and rip currents are also forecast. The NHC warned that the southern coast of Jamaica would see “life-threatening storm surge” from late Monday through to Tuesday morning, peaking between 9 and 13 feet above ground level.

Winds will begin picking up across Jamaica on Sunday night, with devastating hurricane-force winds arriving Monday and into Tuesday as the eye of the storm draws closer to the southern Jamaica coastline.

Once it moves across Jamaica, Melissa is expected to continue north, then northeast on Tuesday and into Wednesday. It will likely make landfall a second time over eastern Cuba late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning, and could make landfall a third time as it moves near or over the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos.

“Satellite images indicate that maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 140 mph [220 kmph] with higher gusts,” the NHC bulletin reported on Sunday.

The NHC has warned of possible “extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages and isolation of communities” in Jamaica and southwestern Haiti due to the storm.

Eastern Cuba is expected to see between 6 and 18 inches of rainfall, also possibly prompting dangerous flash flooding and landslides.