Hurricane Melissa is a mighty Category 5 storm in the Caribbean

Melissa strengthened into a Category 5 hurricane early Monday — the most powerful a hurricane can get — and was forecast to bring “life-threatening and potentially catastrophic” flash flooding and landslides Jamaica, the southern parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic and to eastern Cuba over the next few days, the Miami-based National Hurricane Center warned.

Hurricanes get classified as major when their winds reach 111 mph, making them a Category 3, and as Category 5 — the top of the categories chart — when their winds hit 157 mph. As of 5 a.m. Monday, Melissa was packing winds of 160 mph.

Hurricane Melissa, the 13th named storm of the Atlantic season, isn’t expected to have major impacts on the mainland United States, but could turn out to be the strongest Atlantic system this season.

Melissa’s forecast and path

As of 5 a.m. EDT Monday, Melissa’s center was about 130 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 315 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba, the hurricane center said. Maximum sustained winds had strengthened to 150 mph, with hurricane-force winds extending some 30 miles from the storm’s center and tropical storm-force winds extending 195 miles. It was crawling west at 3 mph.

“On the forecast track,” the center said, “the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica tonight and Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.

“Some additional strengthening is forecast today, with fluctuations in intensity likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica early Tuesday. Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as a powerful major hurricane and will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas.

When Melissa makes landfall, peak storm surge accompanied by destructive waves could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level in Jamaica and 6 to 9 feet in Cuba, according to the NHC.

Melissa could be the most powerful hurricane ever to hit Jamaica, CBS News Philadelphia meteorologist Andrew Kozak said Saturday.

“The island’s terrain makes it even worse,” Kozak said. “Jamaica’s mountains force the air to rise, and that creates more rain.” 

The strongest hurricane to pound Jamaica was Gilbert in 1988, Kozak said. It killed 45 people and caused more than $700 million in damage.

Hurricane advisories

A hurricane warning is in effect for Jamaica and the Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin.

A hurricane watch is in effect for the southeastern and central Bahamas and for the Turks and Caicos islands.

And a tropical storm warning is posted for Haiti and the Cuban province of Las Tunas.

The Naval Station Guantanamo Bay said it was moving “non-mission-essential” U.S. citizens off the island in groups ahead of severe weather from Melissa.

Rainfall forecasts

Melissa is expected to bring 15 to 30 inches of rain to areas of Jamaica and 8 to 16 inches for southern Hispaniola (the island split into Haiti and the Dominican Republic) through Wednesday, with a total of 40 inches possible in some places, the hurricane center said. For eastern Cuba, total rainfall could reach 10 to 15 inches, with as much as 20 inches in some spots today into Wednesday, the center added.

“Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday, resulting in areas of flash
flooding.”

“Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica,” forecasters said.

Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Tuesday, the hurricane center said, but uncertainty remains about the more extended forecast.

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