GOP frets over competitive Texas Senate primary as early voting starts

Some Republicans are growing anxious that incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) could be ousted in the competitive Texas GOP primary for Senate, giving Democrats a rare opening in the red Lone Star State this fall.

As James Talarico gains steam in the Democratic primary against Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas), across the aisle, Cornyn and some national Republicans are warning of a general election “massacre” for the party if Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is leading the GOP race in recent polling, ends up at the top of their ticket.

The possibility of an endorsement from President Trump looms as a potential game changer in the tight race, but Trump was still undecided as early voting kicked off.

“Folks who have been paying attention to Texas politics have all seen this movie before,” said Ross Hunt, a GOP data analyst and pollster based in Dallas, pointing to past cycles where Democrats were optimistic about a potential flip that didn’t pan out.

“All that could change if Ken Paxton is the nominee,” he said. “If Paxton is on the ballot as the Republican nominee, that definitely gives the Democrats some oxygen they wouldn’t otherwise have.”

Cornyn, who is seeking his fifth term in the upper chamber, is defending his seat in a competitive three-way race with Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-Texas). The candidates have each emphasized their alignment with Trump, who said this week that he likes “all three of them, actually” and “we’ll see what happens” when it comes to an endorsement.

Early primary voting began Tuesday. And polls show no Republican with the majority support they’d need to avoid tipping the March 3 primary into a May 26 runoff.

A polling average from Decision Desk HQ shows Paxton 4 points ahead of Cornyn in the Republican primary, at roughly 32 percent support to 28 percent, respectively. Hunt brought in another 19 percent.

As ballots started to come in this week, Cornyn issued a harsh warning for his party.

“If Ken Paxton is the nominee, we could well experience a massacre and the first Democrat elected since 1994 in the state of Texas,” Cornyn told supporters in Fort Worth, Texas, as reported by NBC News.

Republicans’ national Senate campaign arm made a similar case in a memo earlier this month, arguing Cornyn is “the only Republican candidate who reliably wins a general election matchup” and that Texas “cannot afford to be a gamble” in the high-stakes midterms.

The group cited internal polling that showed Cornyn beating Crockett by 7 points and Talarico by 3 points in a hypothetical general election showdown — while Paxton defeated Crockett by just 1 point and lost to Talarico by 3 points.

An endorsement from Trump could change the game, though observers are divided on whether the president will ultimately weigh in as the race hurtles toward a possible runoff.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told Semafor earlier this month that he’s cautioned Trump “many times” on consequences for the party if Cornyn isn’t the Texas GOP nominee.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) this week questioned why Trump and others in the GOP don’t “just lock down Texas” by rallying around Cornyn.

“If [Trump] wanted to help Cornyn, he would endorse [him] as soon as possible, and just every day that goes by where people vote without Cornyn having Trump’s endorsement is bad for Cornyn,” pollster Ross Hunt said. “His endorsement would benefit anyone, but it would have a disproportionately strong benefit for Cornyn.”

Cornyn told NBC News last month that he’d talked with Trump about a possible endorsement. But Paxton, whom Trump considered for U.S. attorney general in his second term, has also pitched himself as a MAGA leader.

Paxton’s team has emphasized his double-digit wins in past elections, as well as Cornyn’s struggle to clinch a majority in recent polls. But Cornyn has pointed to controversy around Paxton as a risk factor even in the reliably red state.

The conservative firebrand and two-term state attorney general was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 on corruption charges, though the state Senate later acquitted him. Texas state Sen. Angela Paxton (R), his wife of nearly four decades, filed for divorce last year, citing “biblical grounds.”

Meanwhile, Wesley Hunt has maintained double-digit support in polls, all but ensuring that the race will become a runoff.

“The NRSC’s malicious omission of Wesley from their memo to convince President Trump to endorse Cornyn is repulsive,” a spokesperson for the congressman’s campaign told The Hill, using an abbreviation for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “If Republicans lose the majority, it will be traced back to their misguided investment in a 24-year incumbent.”

“There is a concerted effort by John Cornyn and many of his allies to essentially make the case against Ken Paxton … but there’s a real question as to whether that’s going to work,” said Josh Blank, research director for the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.

“One, Ken Paxton has assiduously courted the most conservative voters in the Texas electorate, who tend to be overrepresented in Republican primaries,” Blank said. “Further complicating that, of course, is Wesley Hunt, who has done surprisingly well, if the polling is accurate.”

Republican operatives in the state maintain any of the three GOP candidates would have the edge over whoever wins the Democratic nod.

The last Democratic senator in Texas, which voted for Trump by double digits in 2024, was ousted more than two decades ago — and a statewide win for the party has since been seen as a long shot.

Democrat Beto O’Rourke came within a few points of toppling Sen. Ted Cruz (R) during 2018’s “blue wave,” and Democrat Colin Allred lost another competitive race against Cruz in 2024.

While flipping Cornyn’s seat remains a tall order, some Texas Republicans argue that a Paxton win in the primary could give Democrats — particularly Talarico — an opening in the fall.

“Certainly, you have to be concerned. If Paxton and Talarico come out, that’s the worst possible match-up for Republicans,” said Texas Republican consultant Vinny Minchillo.

Though he predicted Paxton would still win the race, Republicans would “have to spend a lot of money they’d rather not spend” in an otherwise safe state while attracting a surge of Democratic dollars.

“The Democrats are excited to be against Paxton. They feel like he’s a vulnerable candidate,” Minchillo said.

Crockett has the name ID advantage in the Democratic race, and some recent polling has shown her ahead of Talarico.

Both contenders face questions about their statewide electability, with the race viewed as a test of their differing tone and approach more than ideology. Crockett is a popular but polarizing progressive firebrand who could rally Democrats, while Talarico has a more understated tack that could reach across the aisle.

That gives him “a path to victory that Crockett doesn’t have,” said Ross Hunt, the GOP pollster, arguing that pro-Crockett Democrats would likely still turn out to support Talarico in a general election.

“The concern over potentially losing all the consistent Republican statewide officeholder leadership is one that we have to be constantly diligent about, and frankly, have to be diligent about no matter who the Republican nominee is,” said James Dickey, a former Texas GOP chair.

“It’s every bit as important, if not more important, for the attorney general race or the comptroller race or the governor’s race … but it is absolutely critical for the Senate race.”

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