A month out, no one looking to repeat October’s historic shutdown

President Donald Trump and congressional Democrats don’t agree on much. But as Washington barrels toward another government funding deadline on Jan. 30, they are in rare alignment: Neither is eager for another shutdown.

Democrats haven’t finalized their strategy but are signaling they will not demand a health care deal in exchange for funding the government, a shift from their October approach that led to the longest shutdown in history. Meanwhile, the White House is privately encouraging congressional Republicans to advance appropriations bills and giving them space to negotiate with Democrats, notably different from the administration’s pre-October shutdown threats.

A shutdown is still a possibility, given how unpredictable a month can be in the Trump era and Congress’ struggle to pass funding bills. Plus both sides have plenty of time to ratchet up the tension. But the consensus-driven rhetoric is a 180-degree shift from the weeks of brinksmanship and escalating verbal barbs that preceded the government’s longest shutdown.

“I don’t think either side wants to see that happen,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune said of a shutdown next month. “I think that’s toxic for both parties.”

Publicly, Trump hasn’t weighed in on the next government funding deadline, but he also hasn’t used his bully pulpit to scuttle negotiations — as he did ahead of the last shutdown, when he warned Republicans not to negotiate. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, meanwhile, said in mid-December he and Thune agree on passing the remaining funding bills before the Jan. 30 deadline.

“I don’t want to see another government shutdown,” Sen. Dick Durbin of Illinois, Schumer’s No. 2, said about leveraging that deadline to get a health care concession. “I’ve had enough of them.”

The White House has privately supported efforts by GOP leaders to try to move funding bills, while largely staying on the sidelines of the congressional negotiations, according to two people with knowledge of the private outreach and granted anonymity to discuss it.

The White House “is always involved in the conversation, but there’s nothing to massage yet, because we don’t have final products yet,” said Republican Sen. Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma, one of Trump’s closest Senate allies.

“I think Congress needs to work its will here. Let’s try to get our appropriation bills done,” Mullin said. “We don’t need the president getting involved just yet.”

One of the people added that the White House “has not been super engaged,” which House Republican leadership views “as a good thing” since Republicans and Democrats “are working constructively to avoid another shutdown.”

When asked if talks are ongoing between the White House and lawmakers from both parties at this point about avoiding a shutdown, a White House official responded, “The White House is talking to everyone all the time.”

Republican Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who is retiring in 2026, said he’s spoken about the funding deadline broadly with White House staff and feels confident that everyone is on the same page: “No doubt, the administration wants to avoid a shutdown, and they’re clearly sending the message that we need to get regular order appropriations moving,” Tillis said.

“I think the president — and the staff that I’ve spoken to — get it, and they’re supportive of it, and I believe that they’re working the way that we should, member to member, to try and clear all the hurdles that we need to get it done,” Tillis said of the appropriations process.

Republicans are confident the White House learned its lesson about the political blowback of a shutdown earlier this year. In early November, Trump told GOP senators that he believed the shutdown was “negative for Republicans” and that it played a “big factor” in Democrats’ victories in Virginia and New Jersey

“The president, I think, was the first one to say that he felt that the election results back in November were in large part due to the shutdown and how bad it was for Republicans,” Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said. “He’s astute, so I can’t imagine he’d want to shut down. I’m sure he’s totally opposed to it, but that’ll be up to them.”

Still, there are signs Trump hasn’t dropped his interest in eliminating the Senate filibuster, a crusade he renewed during the last shutdown because it would allow Republicans to pass bills without any Democratic votes. Trump told POLITICO late last month that the filibuster is “hurting the Republican Party” and if GOP senators got rid of it they could do “everything we want.”“If you get rid of the filibuster, you’re not going to have a shutdown,” he added.

The idea does not have support among most GOP senators, however, and has long been controversial because it would eventually allow the same benefit to the other party when they’re in power.

The other way the White House made its presence known was through quiet negotiations last month to help Thune win over a trio of conservative senators — Rick Scott, Mike Lee and Ron Johnson — who were holding up a five-bill funding package, a sign of the White House’s interest in avoiding a stopgap spending bill. Trump got directly involved with Johnson, with the Wisconsin Republican getting a pledge to advance his bill to ensure some federal workers are paid during government shutdowns.

But an administration move was also at the center of a holdup that ultimately scuttled the Senate’s ability to pass the funding bill before the holidays. Democratic Sens. Michael Bennet and John Hickenlooper announced they would slow-walk the funding agreement over White House budget director Russ Vought’s decision to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research in their home state of Colorado.

Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) said senators tried to “work it out with the White House, but we weren’t able to do that.”

“When you lose a couple of weeks and we’re this close to the deadline, you don’t need to be Euclid to figure out that this is a setback,” Kennedy added about the Senate failing to pass a spending package before leaving town.

Top Republicans announced a deal shortly after the Senate setback for topline totals for the rest of the funding bills Congress still needs to enact, adding a boost to the bicameral conversations ahead of the Jan. 30 deadline.

Schumer, meanwhile, put the onus on Republicans to work out the Colorado funding issue, with conversations expected to continue over the two-week break. The public pressure comes as Democrats are privately debating if they should demand a policy concession, on health care or something else, as part of the funding deadline.

Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), who has been a frequent “no” vote on funding bills this year, said Democrats will need guardrails in an eventual government funding agreement against “Trump’s corruption and his ability to deny money to our states.” Democrats also believe the language Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) secured in the November funding deal that limits Trump’s ability to carry out mass layoffs during a shutdown will automatically be included in the next funding bill.

So far, Democrats view the ongoing bipartisan health care negotiations as separate from the government funding talks, though they are likely to get pressure from progressive groups to link them as the deadline gets closer.

A major reason it’s no longer the center of the fight like it was in October: Enhanced subsidies for Obamacare premiums have already expired.

“After Jan. 1 the toothpaste is out of the tube,” Schumer said when asked repeatedly in mid-December if Democrats would make health care demands on the funding vote. “You can’t do it after Jan. 1. … It’s expired already. It’s not the same as it was before.”

Democrats are already planning to use the expiration of the enhanced Obamacare tax credits as a cudgel against Republicans in the midterms. And Republicans have taken to heart Trump’s own stark warning about the political pain their party felt during the last shutdown as they try to avoid a repeat at the end of this month.

Republican Sen. John Cornyn of Texas said, with the midterms looming next year, the GOP Senate doesn’t need incentives to get the appropriations bills passed.

“Even when it’s the Democrats’ fault, if we have the White House and majority in both houses, then we typically get blamed, which is unfair, but that’s the reality,” he said. “So I think we need to do everything we can to avoid it.”