Vladimir Putin is the only winner in Donald Trump’s risky intelligence game

As our world affairs editor reports from Ukraine, Russia is exploiting Donald Trump’s decision to withhold intelligence by stepping up its attacks and, in the process, is regaining ground in Kursk.

Elite Russian airborne and marine units, backed by North Korean soldiers, launched full-frontal assaults on the Ukrainians with artillery, drones and air attacks. The absence of US intelligence is giving Russia a crucial advantage. “We’re losing,” one Ukrainian fighting in Kursk told this newspaper.

The vast intelligence community of the US, with 18 agencies, previously provided Kyiv with crucial information, including satellite imagery. Without it, Ukrainian forces have far less real-time knowledge of Russian formations, movements, logistics and warnings of missile attacks.

Mykola Bielieskov, an analyst at Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “With anti-ballistic missile defence, every second is important. You need military-grade satellite intelligence.” The ban will also deprive the Ukrainians of targeting data when firing US-supplied HIMARS rockets. “We can still fire them but we’re shooting half-blind,” Mr Bielieskov added.

US administration figures suggest that the withholding of intelligence is temporary, and it is clearly part of Mr Trump’s crude attempt to bully Volodymyr Zelensky into signing a minerals deal and entering peace talks on US terms.

To make matters worse, the US satellite company Maxar blocked Ukraine’s access to its services, which are used by Ukrainian forces to study the battlefield and plan strikes. This was on the orders of the US government, which had already halted its supply of weapons to Kyiv.

These moves are doing immense damage to Ukraine’s military capabilities and are another example of the US president’s regrettably one-sided approach to resolving the three-year conflict.

Remarkably, the only winner will again be the aggressor, Vladimir Putin. Russia will bank any territorial gains during this period ahead of a possible ceasefire and the negotiations on a permanent settlement that will hopefully follow.

In fact, Mr Trump should be doing the precise opposite. As Sir Keir Starmer and other European leaders have urged, this is a moment to bolster Ukraine’s military operations so it would enter any negotiations in the strongest possible position.

Although Mr Trump said on Friday he is “strongly considering” large-scale banking sanctions and tariffs against Russia, this was only a token interruption to his incessant attacks on Mr Zelensky. Indeed, he added he was “finding it more difficult” to deal with Ukraine than Russia and declared that Mr Putin is “doing what anybody else would do” by “bombing the hell out of Ukraine”.

It will now fall to Nato members such as the UK, France and possibly Germany to try to plug the intelligence gap, but their capability is not in the same league as America’s and officials admit privately it will be very difficult.

Despite Sir Keir’s success in securing a seat at the negotiating table, Mr Trump’s strong-arm tactics are another reminder that a good working relationship with the US president does not guarantee influence.

Appearing on the Sunday morning TV and radio shows, Pat McFadden, the Cabinet Office minister, maintained the UK government’s Trappist silence when it comes to criticising Mr Trump. “Well, it’s their decision. It’s not something that we’ve done,” he told Sky News. Asked whether the White House bears any responsibility for the latest casualties in Ukraine, he said: “With regard to the United States, what they’re trying to do is bring the war to an end. I think that aim is shared by everyone.”

In The Independent, Michael Heseltine warns of the danger of silence and how not criticising truly bad things is close to being complicit. It is not far from the famous warning, often misattributed to the philosopher Edmund Burke, that “the only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing”.

The intelligence ban potentially has huge implications – not least for the “five eyes” intelligence alliance comprising the US, the UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

If Mr Trump can switch off the supply of vital information to a supposed ally in Ukraine, then he might be prepared to use it as a political weapon if one of the four partners of the US incurred his displeasure. There are already calls for Europe to develop a “euro eyes” spy network. The UK’s intelligence community is closely intertwined with America’s and, although UK ministers insist in public that the US remains a reliable ally, at some point they may need to confront the grim reality that it is not.

One thing Ukraine’s remaining allies should do in the short term is use the £232bn of Russian assets frozen by Western countries after the 2022 invasion to rebuild Ukraine, as the former prime minister Rishi Sunak is urging. These nations are already using the interest on the assets.

The move would only provide a start; the World Bank estimates Ukraine needs £405bn for reconstruction and recovery over the next 10 years.

Whatever the legal hurdles, Sir Keir and his fellow leaders should find a way to clear them, rather than allow Putin to play for time and, with Mr Trump’s help, laugh all the way to the Kremlin bank.