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Will California’s Prop. 50 spark a Democratic wave to redraw congressional maps?
When California becomes the main event this week in the nationwide civil war over redrawing congressional maps, one big set of statistics will be closely watched Tuesday night around the country: The numbers for and against Proposition 50.
The sound bite, the X post, the headline that emerges to instantly describe what happened with the state referendum on redrawing congressional district lines to favor Democrats will reverberate around the political world.
The result “sets a tone” for similar Democratic efforts in other states, said Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections, a nonpartisan firm that analyzes House races.
Expectations are high for California Democrats. While no analysts are offering a magic number as the key to being momentum-building, the benchmark could be the Berkeley-IGS poll taken October 20-27 that showed 60% of likely state voters backing the initiative.
Republicans see the number as misleading. “That’s a snapshot in time. In California races you tend to see momentum on the no side at the end of the race,” said Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Roseville, whose Republican-friendly district would be redrawn to include more Democrats if the measure passes.
Independent analysts and Democrats nationally see a big win as important for the party. After campaigning in California last week, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-New York, told the “Keepin’ It Real with Rev. Al Sharpton” radio show that with Proposition 50, “We can stop Trump from stealing the election and make sure there are fair congressional maps.”
Rough year for Democrats
The party has had a difficult year as President Donald Trump has dominated policy and virtually ignored any Democrat legislative initiatives in the Republican-run Congress.
He has been pushing hard for redrawing the congressional lines, hoping to avoid the midterm thrashing that the White House party traditionally endures.
Republicans grabbed early momentum in this war, as Texas this summer redrew lines to create five GOP-friendly districts.
Democrats had more trouble matching the changes in states they ran, largely because the process of redistricting was more difficult in those states.
But some are trying. California now provides a chance to provide momentum.
“California is important in limiting the extent to which Republicans improve the map,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan group that analyzes elections.
Whereas Texas could make changes with a legislative act and the support of its Republican governor, California sought voter approval. New York appears unable to do much until 2028, and in Virginia, it’s going to take a complicated set of maneuvers to change the maps for next year.
Who could get Proposition 50 momentum?
Virginia is the best bet for a change, though, said Matthew Klein, U.S. House and governors’ race analyst at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
State Democrats have launched an effort to draw more districts favorable to Democrats. The Democratic-run Assembly approved a constitutional amendment last week, and it now heads to the Senate, where the party has a tiny majority. It would ultimately need voter approval. Democrats now control six of the state’s 11 House seats.
Among the other efforts that could help Democrats:
Illinois: Democrats, with a boost last week from a visit by Jeffries, said they would back a redistricting effort.
Maryland: Gov. Wes Moore said last week he wants a new map that would make it easier to oust the state’s lone Republican House member. He’s getting some resistance, though, from the state Senate president, a Democrat, who’s concerned new lines could make some party incumbents more vulnerable.
Utah: Republicans hold all four House seats in one of the country’s most reliable GOP states. But the state legislature passed new lines earlier this month after a judge said the current map was unconstitutional. The new lines, which still need judicial approval, could make some of the districts more Democrat-friendly.
One problem for Democrats is that they are already heavily gerrymandered in Illinois and Maryland, so “going even further would require some pretty tortuous lines,” Klein said.
The Cook analysis shows nine Democrats in tossup races too close to call. Four are likely to see their districts altered — California Reps. Adam Gray of Merced and Derek Tran of Cypress, who would benefit from Proposition 50, and Ohio’s Emilia Sykes and Marcy Kaptur, who could face tough races.
But among Republicans in tossup races, all eight are in districts where lines are not being redrawn.
Republicans more active in redrawing lines
Republicans are further ahead in the redistricting battle.
Missouri: The state followed Texas in redrawing its map, with Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver the chief target. But the aftermath illustrates the difficulty of making that action stick. Lawsuits by opponents are now pending, and the redistricting could be subject to a voter referendum — in November 2026.
North Carolina: The legislature redrew its map to make it easier to elect a Republican in a district now held by Rep. Don Davis, a Democrat. Davis’ district was the only close House race in the state last year.
Indiana: Gov. Mike Braun has called a special legislative session to consider a new map. Seven of the state’s nine House members are Republicans, who hope they can pick up the other two seats.
Louisiana: The GOP-run legislature approved a plan to delay next year’s primary election one month, thus allowing more time to change district lines.
Ohio could be the exception so far to all the partisan wrangling. Republicans and Democrats last week reached a compromise that redraws lines. That should give Sykes, Kaptur and Greg Landsman, the three most vulnerable state Democrats, a reasonable chance of winning.
Will the California result spur other Democratic states to get bold and redraw maps? Or energize Republicans even further?
This much seems logical, said Klein: “Having a win is just important from a psychological perspective.”