Trump’s claim to be the ultimate dealmaker has never looked more ridiculous

There was a news anchor on Fox News the other day, and he was trying to explain why Project Freedom had been brought to such an abrupt end by Donald Trump, seemingly only minutes after it had been put in place. The presenter was trying to find a rational explanation for the latest policy whiplash, and he was left saying, “the president must know what he’s doing [mustn’t he?]. There will be a rational explanation for it [won’t there?]”

The bits in brackets weren’t said out loud, but you could just sense the nagging doubt in his mind.

So, if it has all passed you by in a blur, a quick refresher on Project Freedom, whose lifespan is so short, I bet even Wikipedia will struggle to remember it. It has had the longevity of a terminally ill mayfly, that dance over our rivers for all too brief a period at this time of year. If it’s passed you by, Project Freedom was announced by Trump, pushed by frat boy Pete Hegseth and briefed out extensively by Little Marco Rubio.

It was the red, white and blue dome that was put in place over the Strait of Hormuz, which would allow the 1,500 or so tankers, bulk carriers, container ships and other vessels to pass freely and safely, thanks to America’s military might and generosity. It was problem solved.

And then, no sooner had Secretary Rubio appeared at the White House lectern to announce that everyone was safe now, than a French cargo ship was hit, injuring several crew members. Cue Truth Social post from Donald Trump saying – err – Project Freedom was being put on ice.

Now we don’t need to detain ourselves with the fact that this made both Hegseth and Rubio look like right chumps. But let’s delve a little deeper into what is going on. The president explained by saying that Iran was close to accepting a deal to reopen the strait, with talks to take place in the future on the future of its nuclear programme.

At the time of writing, there is no peace deal, and I hope for everyone’s sake that Donald Trump is right: negotiations are close to conclusion; a one-page memorandum of understanding is just around the corner; Iran is about to commit to reopening this vital economic artery; and the regime will commit to halting the enrichment of nuclear material.

But. But. But.

We keep being told that a peace deal is around the corner, that Iran has been defeated, that they are begging for a deal. And then you see the evidence in front of your eyes that the regime is still functioning, that the strait is still firmly shut and under their control, and that it still has the capacity to strike Gulf states with missiles and drones.

If this is what victory looks like, I’d hate to see defeat.

And remember this: a few days ago, the US announced that the war was over without having achieved regime change or ending Iran’s nuclear programme or eliminating its missile production. All of this means the focus is now on solving a problem that didn’t even exist before the hostilities started – namely, the firmly locked Strait of Hormuz.

The messaging from Donald Trump has been – well – perplexing (it is the most neutral word I can find). One minute he’s telling us the Iranians are begging him for a deal, the next he’s saying he’s going to get very, very cross if they don’t obey his instructions. Then we get the rinse-and-repeat cycle. “If Iran doesn’t obey, I’m going to kill a whole civilisation in one night.” And up and up the ante goes with ever more preposterous hyperbole.

I love that the Fox presenter still wants to cling to the belief that what we are privileged to be watching is the tactical and strategic genius of the three-dimensional chess grand master. But with each passing day, it looks like he shouldn’t be left unaccompanied with a tiddlywinks board.

Back to the ill-fated Project Freedom, it looks like what did for it was the Saudis. They had not been consulted. They feared it would be a major provocation to Iran, and they said they would stop the US from using their air bases for this operation. Where’s the strategic genius in that?

Watching all this reminds me of my worst moments of parenting. “Unless you do your homework, I will suspend your pocket money. No, I will take away your phone. No, I will wipe out everyone in your school. And as I grow increasingly puce-coloured, my son contorts himself into one giant eyeroll emoji.

And yet. It’s certainly true that Donald Trump’s popularity is sliding and that the Iran war doesn’t enjoy much support in the US. The price of fuel is now way higher than it was before hostilities started. America has no immunity from this.

But the president’s grip on the Republican Party is still iron-like. There was a small but important test of this in Indiana this week. A group of Republicans in the state senate had defied him over a bit of election gerrymandering. Trump ordered an all-out war against these Rinos (Republican in name only). Five of the seven holdout Republicans saw their careers ended this week, as Trump allies piled in with millions of dollars to restore the Maga orthodoxy.

It was a harsh lesson on the price of defying this president. It was a warning to others who might think about turning on him.

The war of obedience, he is still winning, if not the one in the Gulf.