Trump and GOP are close (and getting closer) to losing House majority

President Donald Trump’s small Republican voting majority in the House of Representatives is getting even smaller amid unexpected departures and a tragedy, further complicating their path for passing a GOP-focused agenda during an election year.

California GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa died suddenly at 65 on Jan. 5 after suffering a medical emergency. His death, on the heels of Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s abrupt exit amid a public schism with Trump, brings the ratio of House Republicans to Democrats down to 218-213 (216 is the current number needed for a majority, given the amount of vacancies.)

In addition, Rep. Jim Baird, R-Indiana, was hospitalized this week alongside his wife following a car crash that Trump called a “bad accident.” His office said he is expected to make a full recovery. Baird’s temporary absence from the Capitol will complicate Speaker Mike Johnson’s job of keeping Republicans in line amid a midterm election year when Democrats are trying to remain unified as they try to win back the House majority.

More: Is a blue wave headed for Trump, GOP? Tennessee sends ‘warning signs’

Trump acknowledged the hard political math during a retreat with House Republicans at the Kennedy Center on Jan. 6. “It’s not a big majority,” the second-term president told lawmakers. “But it is a unified majority.”

Yet between the forced vote on releasing the Jeffrey Epstein files and disagreements over lowering health care costs, the GOP actually hasn’t been entirely aligned in recent months. Johnson’s current and slim two-vote margin includes Kentucky Republican Rep. Thomas Massie, who frequently bucks his party and has already been posing issues for GOP leaders as they’ve struggled to maintain control of legislation hitting the floor of the chamber they’re supposed to oversee.

It remains to be seen whether Republicans will be able to retain the House in the 2026 elections. But the trends aren’t in their favor: Historically, the party in power loses seats. Democratic overperformance in last year’s off-year and special elections likely spells trouble.

Read more: Key takeaways as Democrats overperform in Tennessee special election

Retirements, elections, deaths affect majority math

The most high-profile departure from Johnson’s ranks came in November, when Greene said she’d had enough of Washington politics. Her final day in office was Jan. 5, ending for now a career where she often was one of Trump’s most outspoken allies.

Back in Washington, the House will soon start getting replacements for its vacancies. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has set a March 10 special election to fill the rest of Greene’s expiring term. Greene’s retirement was part of a record number of exit announcements from House lawmakers of both parties.

Read more: Threats, dysfunction and flying: Why quitting is all the rage in DC

In Texas, GOP Gov. Greg Abbott has set a special election to replace Democratic Rep. Sylvester Turner, who died in March of last year. A runoff there is set for Jan. 31.

In New Jersey, Democrats will have to wait until April to fill the seat of Mikie Sherrill, a former congresswoman scheduled to be sworn in on Jan. 20 as the governor of her state.

Success of redistricting still uncertain

Looking toward 2026, exactly how the gambits of both parties may redraw their congressional maps to keep or secure a majority next November isn’t clear yet either.

GOP lawmakers in Indiana ultimately rejected a pressure campaign from the White House to redistrict. The Republican speaker of the Kansas House recently said the votes likely aren’t there in his state, either.

Zachary Schermele is a congressional reporter for USA TODAY. You can reach him by email at zschermele@usatoday.com. Follow him on X at @ZachSchermele and Bluesky at @zachschermele.bsky.social.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump’s GOP majority shrinks after departures and a tragedy