Tropical storm watch issued for N.C. as dangerous rip currents forecast up the East Coast — see Category 4 storm’s latest path

A tropical storm watch and storm surge watch have been issued for parts of the Outer Banks in North Carolina as Hurricane Erin, currently a Category 4 storm, barrels its way northwest in the Atlantic, forecasters say. Additionally, the storm is expected to bring “life-threatening” surf and rip currents along the East Coast this week.

Officials in Dare County, N.C., declared a state of emergency and ordered the evacuation of Hatteras Island, where tropical storm conditions and the possibility of life-threatening inundation of water from Erin are expected to have an impact on the barrier islands this week.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the rough surf conditions from the storm could affect the Bahamas and Bermuda and states on the East Coast during the next several days.

Erin formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean last week, officially reaching hurricane status on Friday. It’s the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic season.

Where is Hurricane Erin now, and what is its path?

As of 5 p.m. ET Monday:

Erin is expected to make a gradual turn to the north on Tuesday, the NHC said in its latest advisory.

The computer models show the storm is expected to pass to the east of the southeastern and central Bahamas today and tonight, and move between Bermuda and the East Coast of the United States by the middle of the week.

Watches and warnings

As of 5 p.m. ET Monday, these are the advisories in place, according to the NHC:

Tropical storm warnings are in effect for:

A tropical storm watch is in effect for:

A storm surge watch is in effect for:

Tropical storm conditions are expected through this evening across the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Outer Banks starting late Wednesday.

A storm surge watch means there’s a possibility of life-threatening inundation of water moving inland from the coastline in the designated locations during the next 48 hours.

The outer bands of Erin are expected to bring areas of heavy rainfall across portions of Hispaniola, Turks and Caicos, and the southeast and easternmost central Bahamas through Tuesday. Rainfall totals could range from 2 to 4 inches, with up to 6 inches in isolated areas.

Though Erin is not expected to make direct landfall, swells generated by the storm will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda, the East Coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada during the next several days.

“These rough ocean conditions will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip currents,” the NHC said.

What are the chances Erin will intensify?

Erin reached Category 4 strength on Saturday before briefly weakening and reintensifying early Monday. The same pattern could play out early this week.

NHC forecasters said Erin “will likely retain major hurricane status through the middle of the week.”

Hurricanes are rated on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, ranging from Category 1 to Category 5, with 5 being the most severe. A storm is considered a major hurricane when it reaches Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

How is hurricane season shaping up?

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has a 50% chance of being above normal.

Earlier this month, forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly updated the number of expected storms to 13 to 18 (estimated at 13 to 19 in May), five of which could become major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph).

A typical hurricane season averages 14 named storms. We’re currently about halfway through this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, and as of Friday, Aug. 15, there have been five so far: tropical storms Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter, and now Hurricane Erin.