Tropical Storm Melissa on track to become a hurricane by Friday. See the projected path and latest forecast.

Tropical Storm Melissa formed in the Caribbean on Tuesday, marking the 13th named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. It could become a hurricane by Friday, according to meteorologists.

Forecasters said heavy rainfall and flooding are “expected over portions of Hispaniola and Jamaica into the weekend.”

There is “significant uncertainty” about how strong it may become and what its path may be. NHC meteorologists said it’s unclear whether Tropical Storm Melissa would turn more toward Haiti or Cuba, or whether it would turn toward Jamaica.

The NHC said Tuesday that the Hurricane Hunters are investigating Melissa. They are a specialized team of scientists and pilots from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Air Force Reserve who are trained to fly aircraft directly into hurricanes and tropical storms to gather data to help meteorologists.

Where is Tropical Storm Melissa, and what is its path?

As of 5 p.m. ET on Wednesday:

“Some slow strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Melissa could become a hurricane by Friday, with more substantial intensification forecast by this weekend,” the NHC said. The storm is forecast to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week.

Watches and warnings in effect

According to the NHC, these are the following watches and warnings in place:

A hurricane watch is in effect for:

“A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area,” the NHC said. “A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.”

A tropical storm watch is in effect for:

“A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours,” the NHC said.

What are the storm’s expected impacts and timing?

Within the hurricane watch area in Haiti, hurricane conditions are possible late Thursday, while tropical storm conditions could start in Jamaica late on Thursday or Friday.

Melissa is forecast to bring around 5 to 10 inches of rainfall to southern Haiti, the southern Dominican Republic and eastern Jamaica through Saturday. “Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible,” the NHC said.

Forecasters said that 2 to 4 inches of rainfall are expected in the northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti and in western Jamaica through Saturday. Aruba and Puerto Rico are expected to see 1 to 3 inches of rain, also through Saturday. “Flash and urban flooding will be possible through at least Saturday.”

How is the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season shaping up?

So far, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through the end of November, has been relatively mild. There have been 13 named storms and four hurricanes, three of which developed into major hurricanes. All four of those hurricanes have followed similar tracks that have taken them away from the U.S. mainland. At this point in the 2024 season, the country had already been hit by two massively destructive storms, Helene and Milton, which devastated whole swaths of the Southeastern U.S.