‘Train wreck’ FISA vote exposes Mike Johnson’s tenuous grip on House GOP with a major Trump deadline looming

Amid all the chaos that came with the ousters of Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) and Tony Gonzales (R-Texas), House Speaker Mike Johnson suffered a major embarrassment.

In the late hours of Thursday evening into the early hours of Friday, his bid to pass a clean reauthorization of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act failed. That happened despite Donald Trump — whom Johnson is loath to disappoint — having called for a “clean 18-month extension.”

But a handful of insurgents in the House Republican conference revolted over their demand for stronger warrant requirements. Even hardline Trump supporters saw passing a clean extension as a bridge too far. Rep. Andy Ogles, of Tennessee, who has previously called for Trump to be able to run for a third term, called the agreement a “trainwreck.”

Eventually, the caucus agreed by unanimous consent to extend FISA until the end of the month. But that only buys Johnson a little time, representing a stunning failure for the leader of the House.

When Johnson became speaker in a compromise after a coup ousted then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, many said his days were numbered thanks to the fractious nature of his conference. But during Joe Biden’s presidency, he ultimately forged a working partnership with Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who would offer enough votes to get measures over the line when far-right Republicans stonewalled.

He received a boost when Trump returned to office. While many of those cantankerous members of the House Freedom Caucus remained, Johnson ultimately knew that they would not want to go on record voting against the president. It became a running joke that the members who publicly said they would vote “no” always folded when it came time for an actual tally.

This played out especially when the House last summer passed the “One Big, Beautiful Bill” without any changes after the Senate drastically altered it from the original version. Johnson — so far, correctly — bet that Republicans in tough races would rather incur the wrath of general election voters than the anger of Trump.

In the same vein, Johnson has mostly kept Republicans together to oppose War Powers Act resolutions to rein in Trump on Venezuela and Iran.

But there are limits to how much Republicans are willing to comply with Trump. And it makes things harder for Johnson, who’s job is largely dependent on staying on Trump’s good side. Now, Johnson will need to figure out a solution that satisfies enough Republicans — with the help of some Democrats — to pass the bill before the end of the month.

And that’s not all Johnson has to contest with. Since February, the Department of Homeland Security has been shut down due to the fact that Republicans and Democrats could not come to an agreement on ways to reform Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

The Senate would ultimately pass by unanimous consent a spending bill to reopen the department except for ICE and Customs and Border Protection, only for Johnson to kill it.

Johnson likely did this because he knew he could not sell a Homeland Security bill that had no funding for ICE or the SAVE America Act, the bill conservatives want to require proof of citizenship to register to vote. But by doing so, Johnson, not the Democrats, owned the Homeland Security shutdown.

Then, out of nowhere, he ultimately agreed to the same deal to pass the same deal and to pass funding for ICE and CBP in a separate reconciliation bill to avoid a filibuster. Trump says he wants such an agreement by June 1, only further adding to Johnson’s plate.

But Johnson’s footing has significantly changed. An NBC News poll released this weekend showed that Trump’s approval rating is at its lowest since he returned to office.

That might embolden some House Republicans, particularly those in contentious swing districts, to prove that they are not simply foot soldiers for Trump.

Already, Rep. Kevin Kiley of California quit the Republican Party in an attempt to show he is nobody’s puppet and save himself from a losing his seat now that California redrew its map and put him in a tougher position.

The same can be said for Republicans in Virginia. On Tuesday evening, the commonwealth will hold a special election to allow a one-time redraw of its congressional maps to create 10 seats favorable to Democrats and one favorable to the GOP. If this passes, more Republicans might feel the need to separate themselves from Trump.

For the most part, Trump has acted as Johnson’s de facto majority whip–or vice versa, depending on who asks. But members of Congress, even hardliners, still need to win re-election. And in a time where Trump is increasingly unpopular, it may mean the end of Trump’s ability to get whatever he wants through Congress.