Lower rates were supposed to bring homebuyers back this fall. Here’s why it hasn’t happened.

This year’s traditional spring homebuying season may have disappointed, but fall was going to be different, the real estate world bet. The narrative: Mortgage rates at 11-month lows and hype around the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cutting plans would finally convince buyers to come off the sidelines.

Nice try. So far, there are few signs that the housing market has emerged from its deep slump, even now that mortgage rates are holding stable at around 6.3%. Inventory is climbing, suggesting that sellers are willing to test the market. But today’s rates and prices remain too high to interest most buyers.

“Mortgage rates have come down, but they’re still within range of where they’ve been since late 2023,” said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. “It really isn’t a huge motivator.”

Mortgage rates averaged 6.27% this week through Wednesday, near year-to-date lows, and down from the 6.6%-6.7% range they were stuck in most of this spring. While the drop has improved affordability slightly, the changes haven’t been drastic enough to pull buyers off the sidelines, especially because home prices are still climbing in many markets.

Learn more: 8 strategies for getting the lowest mortgage rates right now

In July, Zillow calculated that mortgage rates would need to hit 4.43% — far lower than even the most optimistic projections — in order for a median-income family to afford a typical home in the US.

Today’s market suggests an ongoing stalemate between buyers and sellers.

Buyers may now be waiting on potential lower rates in the spring, while many sellers have low mortgage rates and the flexibility to wait for higher-priced offers — and pull listings if they can’t get their desired price.

Meanwhile, the traditional markers of failed sales — like contract cancellations and pulled listings — remain high. Around 56,000 home sales, or 15% of what went under contract in August, were ultimately called off, according to Redfin. That’s the highest cancellation rate for the month since 2017.

Real estate professionals in markets that have been hot and cold this year all say buyers appear to be picking up some power this fall as sales slow.

In San Antonio, Texas, there’s often a small uptick in fall homebuying, but it hasn’t materialized this year, said Realtor Mark Stillings. While the city’s best-priced homes still sell quickly, everything else is sitting. Inventory has jumped as buyer demand has remained weak, and sellers frequently find themselves competing against new construction homes, which can be attractive to buyers for their builder-paid rate buydown offers.