Iran-US war latest: Trump has ‘pretty solid’ deal on the table, says Rubio as oil prices drop below $100

US president Donald Trump might be getting cold feet over his Iran deal after facing strong push-back from Republicans over the leaked details, a defence analyst has said.

Michael Clarke, security and defence analyst at Sky News, interpreted Mr Trump’s comments over the past few days, where he initially said a peace deal with Iran was close before rowing back on Monday.

Mr Clarke said: “Monday is war day, Friday is peace day, because on the Friday he makes very positive statements about the closeness of the deal because that settles the markets. Then on Monday it’s ‘oh well we can’t get a deal so we might have to go back to war’.

“There is a pattern to it. You can go back over the past three months, Friday is peace day, Monday is war day. So yes, this is the day for reminding the world and the Iranians that the American military machine is still there.

“Where are we with the deal, there is some optimism that there is an outline of a deal. But over the weekend a lot of Republicans were pushing back on it, saying ‘if this is the deal, this is a lot worse than what we had in 2015, the deal that you wrecked, the Obama deal.”

“If it is the deal that is being briefed then that would be the case”.

Mr Clarke added that, in light of the push-back from Republicans like Senator Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham, “I think Trump is saying well it’s not the deal after all”.

The United States will either have a good agreement with Iran or deal with the country “another way,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Monday, as Washington played down hopes for an imminent breakthrough in the three-month-old war.

Mr Rubio told reporters in New Delhi that the US would give diplomacy every chance to succeed before exploring “alternatives”, after President Donald Trump said on Sunday he had told his ⁠representatives not to rush into any Iran deal.

There was a “pretty solid thing on the table in terms of their ability to open up the strait, get the strait open, enter into a very real, significant, time-limited negotiation on the nuclear matter, and hopefully we can pull it off,” Mr Rubio said.

A day earlier, Mr Trump wrote on Truth Social that the US blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz would “remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed”.

“Both sides must take their time and get it right,” he added. There was no immediate response from Iran’s government. But the Tasnim news ⁠agency, linked to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, said the US was still obstructing parts of a potential ​deal, including Tehran’s ⁠demand for the release of frozen funds.

European shares opened on Monday at their highest levels in more than two months, buoyed by signs that ⁠Iran and the United States were negotiating an end to their conflict, easing concerns about inflation and a global economic slowdown.

The pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.61 per cent at 628.93 points, as of 0712 GMT, trading just shy of a record high touched in late February, just before the Middle East war erupted.

Most sectors traded higher, led by banks with a ⁠1.7 per cent jump, while regional airlines such as Lufthansa and Air France KLM ​gained ⁠4.2 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively, ‌as Brent crude prices slid 5 per cent to $98 a barrel.

Stocks surged on Monday while the US dollar and oil prices slid as the prospect of a deal to end the Iran war buoyed risk appetite, although a lack of clarity over when the Strait of Hormuz would open kept enthusiasm in check.

US President Donald Trump said on Sunday he had told his representatives not to rush into any deal with Iran, as his administration played down hopes of an imminent breakthrough. Just a day earlier, Mr Trump said Washington and Iran had “largely negotiated” a memorandum of understanding on a deal that would reopen the waterway, which carried one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the war.

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, ​said ⁠markets have become less focused on the timing of a resolution and instead been keeping an eye on the tone of the headlines.

“The tone has been consistently towards some sort of resolution… We’ve become very patient for a resolution deadline.”

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson has said that conclusions have been reached on many topics discussed in a “potential memorandum” of understanding with the US, but this does not mean Tehran is close to signing an agreement.

The ‌spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, ‌added that Iran is negotiating an ⁠end to the war and is not currently discussing nuclear issues, and repeated that ‌changes in the ​positions ‌of US officials ⁠create problems for ⁠any agreement.

Iran is negotiating an end to the war with the US and is not currently discussing nuclear issues, the Iranian foreign ministry has said.

Details of the draft US-Iran agreement emerged yesterday, with the deal reportedly including a commitment for Iran to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, with the details and timelines to be worked out later.

A senior Iranian diplomat told the ISNA news agency on Monday that Iran would discuss its nuclear programme and its highly enriched uranium with the US if Washington fulfils its commitments under the initial draft deal.

These issues would be discussed in the 60 days of negotiations that will follow the agreement, Hossein Nooshabadi said.

Mohammad ​Bagher Ghalibaf, who has been Iran’s top negotiator in talks with the US, has been reelected as parliament speaker, ​semi-official ​Fars ⁠news agency ​has reported.

A senior Trump administration official outlined what he said were the latest contours of issues being negotiated with Iran.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity, the official told Reuters that Iran had agreed “in principle” to open the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade, and to dispose of Tehran’s highly enriched uranium.

The US understood Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei had endorsed the broad template of the deal, ⁠he added.

There was no immediate confirmation from Iran or elaboration on what an “in principle” agreement meant. The US official said Washington envisioned first re-opening the strait and lifting the US naval blockade. Negotiating the details of the nuclear measures would take more time.

The official pushed back on suggestions that Iran had not accepted disposing of its stockpiled enriched uranium. “It’s a question about how,” the official said.

A second senior administration official said on Sunday the proposed framework would give negotiators 60 days to reach a final deal.

British households will this week find out how much energy bills are set to increase by from July when the price cap is updated as forecasts point to a rise of more than £200 and a painful winter of sky-high bills ahead due to the Iran war.

On Wednesday, regulator Ofgem will reveal the level of the annual energy price cap for July to September for a typical dual fuel household across England, Scotland and Wales.

Analysts Cornwall Insight predicted last week the cap will rise by £209 a year to £1,850 from July 1 – an increase of 13 per cent on April’s £1,641 annual cap.

It sets a maximum price per unit of gas and electricity used, meaning households only pay for the amount of energy they use.

Cornwall Insight’s forecasts suggest the cap in October will be at a similar level to July, even if the Middle East conflict were to end soon, due to the physical damage to infrastructure and lingering effect of disrupted supply.