How tariffs are tanking Trump’s approval rating

In 1992, Democratic political strategist James Carville famously distilled the presidential election down to one blunt catchphrase: “It’s the economy, stupid.”

The results of a new Yahoo News/YouGov poll suggest that, more than three decades later, the start of President Trump’s second term could be summed up the same way — particularly when it comes to tariffs and trade.

The survey of 1,560 U.S. adults was conducted from May 22 to May 27, following months of global economic upheaval — all of it triggered by Trump. On-again off-again tariffs as high as 145%. Retaliatory measures from major allies and trading partners. Headlines about trade wars. Market nosedives. Market recoveries. Legal confusion. Stress among small-business owners. And rising prices for ordinary American consumers.

At the same time, Trump’s approval rating has steadily deteriorated. Before last November’s election, a majority of Americans (51%) told Yahoo News and YouGov that they approved of the way Trump had handled his first term in office; fewer (43%) said they disapproved.

But when asked again in March how they felt about the president’s performance since returning to office, those numbers had flipped: more respondents now said they disapproved (50%) than said they approved (44%) of the job Trump had done during the first two months of his second term.

A few weeks later, in April, the gap between Trump’s disapproval (53%) and approval (42%) ratings had grown even wider (to 11 percentage points). And the latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that gap is continuing to expand. Today only 41% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, while 54% disapprove, putting him 13 points underwater.

Those are some of the president’s worst numbers since the latter stages of his first term.

Trump’s 3 weakest issues are all linked to the economy

Digging deeper, more Americans disapprove than approve of how Trump is handling each major issue included in the survey: immigration (by a two-point margin); government spending (by an eight-point margin); the war between Russia and Ukraine (by an eight-point margin); diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI (by a nine-point margin); and democracy (by a 13-point margin).

But the biggest gaps between Trump’s approval and disapproval ratings emerge when Americans are asked about economic issues. According to the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, the president is now 19 points underwater on the economy in general (37% approve to 56% disapprove); 22 points underwater on trade and tariffs (35% approve to 57% disapprove); and 27 points underwater on the cost of living (32% approve to 59% disapprove).

To put those numbers in perspective, Trump’s average approval rating on the economy was 49% in the middle of 2020 — at the height of the COVID-19 crash. His average disapproval rating was 45%.

Similarly, a full 57% of Americans think Trump has “gone too far “in “raising tariffs on imported goods” — significantly more than the share who think he’s gone too far in “cutting the federal workforce” (51%), “arresting and deporting immigrants” (49%) or “investigating his political opponents” (45%).

Just 4% of Americans say Trump’s approach to raising tariffs has “not gone far enough.”

As a result, 40% of U.S. adults now rate the economy as “poor” — a five-point increase since April. Among independents, that same number has jumped a full 10 points — from 35% to 45% — over the last month. All told, nearly three quarters of Americans (72%) now say the economy is either fair or poor. Just 25% consider it excellent or good.

The new GOP budget is unlikely to boost Trump

Earlier this month, House Republicans passed Trump’s “one big, beautiful bill” — a package of tax cuts, social safety net reductions and increased border and military spending meant to deliver the bulk of his legislative agenda.

But assuming that some version of the bill survives the Senate — a big if at this point — it is unlikely to reverse the president’s economic standing.

In the new Yahoo News/YouGov poll, half of respondents were asked whether they “approve or disapprove of the federal budget just passed by the U.S. House of Representatives” — with no additional information provided.

Twenty-eight percent said they approved, 41% said they disapproved and 31% said they weren’t sure — hardly a ringing endorsement.

Meanwhile, the other half of respondents read the following description of the bill before answering the same question:

The U.S. House of Representatives just passed a federal budget that extends and expands the 2017 tax cuts for Americans of all incomes, at a cost of $3.8 trillion, while partially paying for those cuts by reducing Medicaid and food stamp benefits for lower-income Americans and ending some clean energy programs. The House budget also increases military and border spending and raises the debt ceiling from $36 trillion to $40 trillion.

Among this second, more informed group of respondents, approval of Trump’s budget bill stayed roughly the same (31%). But uncertainty fell by 17 points (to 14%) — and disapproval shot up by nearly as much (to 55%).

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The Yahoo News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,560 U.S. adults interviewed online from May 22 to May 27, 2025. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2024 election turnout and presidential vote, party identification and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Party identification is weighted to the estimated distribution at the time of the election (31% Democratic, 32% Republican). Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all U.S. adults. The margin of error is approximately 2.9%.