US economy flashes warning signs in new data, analysts say

The federal government released two major economic reports this week, easing a backlog of data pent up by the 43-day government shutdown.

The data flashed some warning signs, showing the unemployment rate had ticked up to its highest level in four years and retail sales had stalled at the outset of the holiday season, some analysts told ABC News. Even so, the reports offered bright spots and elicited a dose of skepticism about numbers released after a weeks-long delay, analysts added.

The latest snapshot of the economy arrives at a wobbly period, landing amid a slowdown of hiring alongside an uptick of inflation.

Jobs report shows hiring slowdown in November

The jobs report on Tuesday “paints a sobering picture of a job market that may officially be turning frigid after a prolonged cooling period,” Laura Ullrich, director of economic research in North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, told ABC News in a statement.

Even so, Ullrich acknowledged, “the incomplete and unconventional jobs report may always need an asterisk attached to it.”

Mark Blyth, professor of political economy at Brown University, echoed that view, saying the fresh numbers should be taken with more than a few grains of salt.

“Eventually you’re just left with salt,” Blyth told ABC News.

The U.S. added 64,000 jobs in November, which marked a significant decline from 119,000 jobs added in September, the most recent month for which complete data is available, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.6% in November from 4.4% in September. Unemployment remains low by historical standards but has inched up to its highest level since 2021.

Partial data for October — limited by the government shutdown — showed a staggering loss of 105,000 jobs that month, though the decline owed largely to employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer by the federal government earlier this year.

“The October payrolls figure is jarring,” Elyse Ausenbaugh, head of investment strategy at JP Morgan Wealth Management, told ABC News in a statement.

A retail sales report on Tuesday also sounded a cautionary note about consumer spending, which accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Retail sales were left unchanged in October from September, meaning performance remained flat despite the ramp up of the holiday season, U.S. Census Bureau data showed.

“October was supposed to be the big holiday shopping kickoff,” Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate, told ABC News. “About half of holiday shoppers planned to begin making purchases before the end of October, but consumer pullbacks elsewhere left October retail sales right where they were in September.”

“Retail sales seem to be losing momentum at a crucial time of year,” Rossman added.

To be sure, the fresh data offered up some positive signs. As in previous months, the health care sector stood out as a robust source of hiring in November, adding 46,000 jobs, the BLS said. The construction and social assistance industries also contributed to the uptick in hiring.

Unemployment ticked up due to a larger number of people searching for work and in turn counting toward the tabulation, rather than a rise in the count of people out of work altogether, the Royal Bank of Canada economics team told ABC News in a statement.

On Tuesday, the White House touted continued growth in the labor market.

“The strong jobs report shows how President Trump is fixing the damage caused by Joe Biden and creating a strong, America First economy in record time. Since President Trump took office, 100% of the job growth has come in the private sector and among native-born Americans — exactly where it should be,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement.

Retail sales, meanwhile, demonstrated some areas of strength. Core retail sales, which strips out volatile items like auto fuel, exceeded economists’ expectations, Bret Kenwell, U.S. investment analyst at eToro, told ABC News in a statement.

“Even if October’s retail sales data is dated, it reinforces a central theme for investors and the Fed: The resilience of US consumers,” Kenwell added.

The fresh jobs data arrived less than a week after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate a quarter of a percentage point in an effort to boost the sluggish labor market. The move amounted to the third rate cut this year, bringing the Fed’s benchmark rate to a level between 3.5% and 3.75%.

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Interest rates have dropped significantly from a recent peak attained in 2023, but borrowing costs remain well above a 0% rate established at the outset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Speaking at a press conference in Washington, D.C., last Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell touted the rate cut as an effort to improve the labor market, but he suggested the central bank may be cautious about further rate reductions.

“We’re well-positioned to wait and see how the economy evolves,” Powell said.