4 ways Iran could strike back if Trump invades Kharg Island

The buildup of U.S. troops in the Middle East has raised speculation of a possible ground attack on Iranian soil, with eyes on the vital oil depot on Kharg Island.

President Trump has railed against Tehran for closing the Strait of Hormuz — a vital shipping lane through which one-fifth of the world’s crude oil passes through — threatening to further escalate the war should the regime not reopen the waterway.

But any U.S. boots on the ground would likely trigger a major escalation in the conflict and a significant response from Iran, given the island is an economic lifeline for Tehran and handles roughly 90 percent of the country’s crude exports.

Although weakened after a substantial U.S.-Israeli air campaign that has pounded the country with more than 22,000 bombs and missiles since late February, Iran’s regime still has weapons and tactics at its disposal that could inflict damage on American troops, bases and allies in the Persian Gulf region and further disrupt the global economy, according to former U.S. officials and regional analysts.

Here’s how Tehran could respond:

Direct hits on U.S. troops

The most likely scenario to play out would be a direct attack on U.S. forces should they set foot on Iranian soil. Kharg Island, which sits roughly 20 miles off Iran’s coast, could be easily struck by drones and missiles launched from the mainland. And in all probability, there are still Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps forces on the island, according to Bryan Clark, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute.

“You’ll see some on the ground resistance, actual full arms fire,” he told The Hill. “I imagine they’ve also booby-trapped it. For U.S. troops [to] go out there I imagine there’s a fair number of IEDs and other surprises waiting for them because the perspective of the Iranians is once the U.S. tries to take it, then [they’re] not going to be getting production back anytime soon they might as well create some casualties for the U.S. and a political problem for Trump back home.”

Joe Costa with the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank, said Iran still can hit American troops with rockets, drones, mines and fast attack boats.

“How much capacity they have to do this over time, that remains unclear, but the fact that they are successfully striking infrastructure in the region … indicates that their command and control structure is still functioning,” said Costa, a former Pentagon official who helped oversee war planning during former President Biden’s administration.

Iran’s more than 190,000-person army also means any military bid to control the island or the Strait of Hormuz could “shift very quickly into a counter-insurgency type battle,” he added.

Jason Campbell, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said the Iranians will “no doubt direct a lot of their fire” at Kharg and any other possible U.S. position nearby “because they know very well how to the importance of public opinion here in the United States and the damage that can do to President Trump. There’s no faster way to diminish public opinion even more so than it already is by raising casualties.”

Strikes on Gulf oil hubs

American boots on the ground also would likely trigger stepped-up Iranian attacks on oil and other energy infrastructure in the region, particularly in the Gulf.

“They’ve been somewhat restrained in striking some of that so far, but they’ve shown that they can move up the escalation ladder,” said Jon Hoffman, a research fellow in defense and foreign policy at the Cato Institute. “Attacks on oil and infrastructure. You could see attacks on power plants. You could see attacks on desalination plants.”

He added: “Their most lucrative form of retaliation is continuing to tighten that noose around Trump’s neck, that noose being the international energy market.”

Trump has largely played down the rising cost of gas in the U.S., insisting the economic pain will be temporary. However, market analysts warn the shock to the global energy industry will only get deeper as the war drags on or escalates.

Campbell, meanwhile, said Tehran has already demonstrated a willingness to strike out across the Gulf at more vulnerable and sensitive critical energy infrastructure, as well as other civilian targets, like ports and airports.

This week, for example, an Iranian ballistic missile struck an open area in northern Israel in an attack appearing to target the country’s largest power plant.

“I would suspect that would absolutely be part of their reaction,” he told The Hill.

Stepped up proxy attacks

Since the start of the war, Iranian proxies have struck back at Israel, Gulf nations and U.S. positions in the region, with the majority coming from militia groups in Iraq and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and American military targets in Iraq have been targeted multiple times this month by rocket and drone attacks attributed to Iraqi militia. These groups can always increase their involvement, said Hoffman.

“The Iraqi militias have actually shown a willingness to get more involved in the conflict. Hezbollah has shown an ability to still launch missiles at Israel,” he said.

As the United States further escalates fighting, you could also see the Houthis in Yemen “quickly turning their missiles on the Red Sea,” Hoffman added.

That very well could come to pass, as on Friday the Houthis laid out their red lines for entering the conflict to support Iran.

Washington sought to damage Houthi forces in airstrikes on the group in May, but the U.S. now may have to contend with mines laid by the rebel group to further upend shipping, Clark said.

“There is a theory of the case they were holding back a little bit, and they certainly have the capacity to cause trouble,” Costa said of the proxy groups. “This might indicate that this was sort of designed to wait until things kept getting worse and more serious, and this is where we enter an escalatory spiral.”

Houthis close Red Sea strait

The Strait of Hormuz isn’t the only vital shipping lane that Iran could target. The Red Sea holds another waterway in the Middle East critical to global energy markets that could be closed by Iran and its proxies: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Iran’s military since late last week warned that the country would escalate “insecurity in other straits, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea,” should the U.S. and Israel continue to attack Tehran’s energy infrastructure.

“If the enemy wants to take action on land in the Iranian islands or anywhere else in our lands or to inflict costs on Iran with naval movements in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of ​​Oman, we will open other fronts for them as a surprise so that their action will not only be of no benefit to them but will also double their costs,” one military source told Iran’s Tasnim News Agency on Wednesday.

About 10 percent of the world’s oil and natural gas supplies pass through the 20-mile-wide passage, which sits southwest of Yemen.

Bab el-Mandeb has previously been targeted by the Houthis, who have blocked the strait by attacking ships with drones and missiles.

“We had an enormous amount of difficulty with the Houthis for a long period of time and they were not nearly as capable as Iran is,” Costa said. “They certainly have the capacity to cause trouble. They proved that they absolutely have the ability to start to harass and stop traffic in the Red Sea, just like they did a year and a half ago.”

He added: “That just creates a second dilemma where U.S. forces, Israeli forces, and others will now have to handle that two-part problem.”

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