Gavin Newsom leads 2028 Democratic primary field, edges out Trump in head-to-head matchup

In recent months, California’s Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has been acting a lot like a presidential candidate-in-waiting. He’s set up fundraising committees. He’s visited key battleground states. He’s hosted national political players on his podcast. He’s mocked President Trump on social media. And he’s convinced the California Legislature to “fight fire with fire” by matching Texas’s partisan redistricting push.

“It’s not about whether we play hardball anymore,” the governor recently told his fellow Democratic officials. “It’s about how we play hardball.”

And now Newsom’s new brand of hardball has coincided with a rise in poll support — at least when it comes to boosting his own political brand.

According to the latest Yahoo/YouGov poll, Newsom has surged to the front of the Democratic Party’s 2028 presidential primary pack, with 21% of registered Democratic voters and registered voters who lean Democratic now picking him as their preferred nominee.

That puts Newsom slightly ahead of former Vice President Kamala Harris (19%), the party’s 2024 nominee and perhaps the most familiar name on the list — and well ahead of New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (12%), former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (10%), Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker (7%), Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (4%), Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (4%) and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (2%).

The survey of 1,690 U.S. adults, which was conducted from Aug. 29 to Sept. 2, also finds that if the 2028 general election were “held today,” 49% of registered voters say they would cast their ballots for Newsom — while only 41% say they would choose Trump.

Trump, of course, is constitutionally prohibited from running for a third term. But Newsom (49%) leads Vice President JD Vance (41%) by 8 points as well.

Caveats apply here. For one thing, the 2028 contest won’t start in earnest for another 16 months; hypothetical matchups this far out are not — and never have been — predictive. For another, the Yahoo/YouGov poll didn’t pair President Trump or Vance with other potential Democratic challengers, so it’s impossible to say whether Newsom is performing better or worse than the alternatives.

It’s clear, however, that Newsom’s recent turn in the national spotlight has changed how Democrats see him.

While this is the first time the Yahoo/YouGov poll has asked the party’s voters who they would prefer as their 2028 nominee, an Economist/YouGov poll posed a similar question in April, asking which candidate would be “your ideal choice?” In that survey — conducted before the California redistricting push — Newsom registered at 8%, on par with Buttigieg (9%), Ocasio-Cortez (7%) and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (6%).

In contrast, 29% of Democrats opted for Harris.

A clash over redistricting

According to the new Yahoo/YouGov poll, overall perceptions of Newsom as a politician are not that different from overall views of Trump.

As befitting the Californian’s lower national profile, more Americans say they’re “not sure” what to think of him — but the usual partisan polarization is very much in effect among those who do know what they think.

Yet for the moment, at least, Americans seem to view Newsom’s redistricting countermeasures more favorably than the president’s own moves in that area.

U.S. House redistricting efforts — the process of redrawing the boundaries of each district — typically take place every 10 years, after each new census reveals changes in population distribution.

But last month, Trump encouraged Republican legislators in Texas to pass new congressional district boundaries five years earlier than normal to help Republicans win five additional U.S. House seats in the 2026 midterm elections.

In response, Newsom similarly backed an effort by Democratic legislators in California to create new congressional district boundaries five years earlier than normal to help Democrats win five additional U.S. House seats in the 2026 midterm elections.

To be sure, redistricting itself — defined for poll respondents as “the practice by which politicians redraw congressional districts to help their own party win” — has few fans. Just 11% of Americans say they favor it; 58% are opposed. Democrats in particular are anti-redistricting (5% favor, 73% oppose, 23% not sure); Republicans are more divided (23% favor, 36% oppose, 41% not sure).

Yet while just 25% of Americans approve (and 49% disapprove) of Trump’s recent redistricting push in Texas, the numbers for Newsom’s response in California are significantly closer: 33% approve to 39% disapprove.

Similarly, only 22% of Americans say they approve of Trump’s overall approach to redistricting — described for respondents as him “prais[ing] Texas over its redistricting while saying he will sue California over redistricting there.” A majority (54%) disapproves. In contrast, more Americans approve (39%) than disapprove (37%) of Newsom’s approach: saying “Democrats need to ‘play hardball’ in California and elsewhere in response to the Trump administration’s efforts to ‘advance Republicans’ power.’”

Why the difference? The poll shows that Democratic disapproval of Trump’s Texas redistricting push (80%) is significantly higher than Republican opposition to Newsom’s California response (56%) — and Republican support for what Trump is doing in Texas (56%) is modestly lower than Democratic support for what Newsom is doing in California (62%). This partisan asymmetry skews overall approval in favor of Newsom’s efforts.

Warning signs for Newsom

Despite his improving numbers, the new Yahoo/YouGov survey highlights three possible risks for Newsom going forward.

First, more Americans see Trump as a “stronger leader” (44%) than Newsom (32%) — largely because the number of Republicans who view the president that way (91%) is much higher than the number of Democrats who say the same about his California counterpart (66%).

Second, younger Democrats and Democratic leaners — adults under 45 — prefer both Harris (27%) and Ocasio-Cortez (22%) to Newsom (13%) as a potential 2028 presidential nominee. Newsom’s strength is largely concentrated among Democrats over 45, among whom he leads Harris 26% to 13%.

Finally, Newsom’s recent shift in social media strategy is not especially popular. When told in the poll that “Newsom and his team have started to satirize Donald Trump’s social media presence, imitating his aggressive, all-caps style, mocking his looks and his masculinity and accusing him of cheating to win,” just 33% of respondents said they approve; 43% said they disapprove.

One bright spot here for the governor? Trump’s own use of social media is even less popular, with just 29% of Americans saying they approve and a majority — 52% — saying they disapprove.

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The Yahoo survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,690 U.S. adults interviewed online from Aug. 29 to Sept. 2, 2025. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education, 2024 election turnout and presidential vote, party identification and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets come from the 2019 American Community Survey. Party identification is weighted to the estimated distribution at the time of the election (31% Democratic, 32% Republican). Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all U.S. adults. The margin of error is approximately 3.1%.